Bayesian Network Process

Bayesian Network Models in Ecology                                                                                                                                                          Back to The Ecology Plexus Page...

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What Are "Bayesian Network Models?"

A Bayesian network (BN) is simply a way of showing how things interact and cause specific outcomes.

Why Use BNs?

Decision criteria can be represented in a variety of ways ... plain text guidelines, or with "decision trees," fuzzy logic models, or other means. BNs have several key advantages over other tools:

• BNs can explicitly layout parameters in a decision process.
• BNs explicitly depict uncertainty as probabilities, which can fit well in risk analysis and risk management frameworks.
• BNs can be used to help identify key factors that most influence some outcome of interest, to help prioritize monitoring or research.

For Further Exploration

Where can you learn more about BN structures and such? Here are a few links for the ambitious learner:

• Introduction to Bayes Nets by Norsys Inc. (maker of the model Netica, which is used in the examples shown above)
• Tutorial Introduction to Belief Networks by Amos Storkey
• One other source is my own little corner of the web ... a page on creating BN models in ecology.

Guidelines & Consideration for Developing, Testing, and Documenting Bayesian Network Models

• A set of guidelines you can follow
• Bayesian network modeling metrics of performance and uncertainty
• Template for conducting and documenting guided peer reviews of Bayesian network models
• Template for scheduling and tracking peer reviews of Bayesian network models

Bruce G. Marcot, Ph.D. Research Profile